March 12, 2026
With the Oscar Awards coming on March 16, 2026, Monday morning (Manila time) live streaming on the Disney+ app, it is time for me now to make my fearless Oscar predictions.
(My Oscar predictions of previous years were posted on these links: 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013).
Here is how I would rank this year's 10 nominees for Oscar Best Picture based on my own personal opinions when I first saw them (not based on probability that I think they will win):
1. SINNERS (MY FULL REVIEW)
Writer-director Ryan Coogler certainly took his time in telling his story. The entire first hour was spent on building this world of the Moore twins Smoke and Stack, introducing them and all the characters around them, so that we will care about what happens to them in the second half of the film. At first, we needed clues to distinguish the twins -- Smoke wore a blue beret, while Stack wore a red fedora. Later, Jordan made sure we could tell which twin was who.
From the very beginning, we already knew that music was going to play an important role in this movie. The narrator tells us how cultures all over the world all believed that music could have supernatural powers. When Sammie told his pastor father that he was going to play blues music, he was warned how this music could bring him towards danger. Blues music is laden with sensual melancholy as derived from Afro-American work songs and spirituals.
2. FRANKENSTEIN (MY FULL REVIEW)
Those familiar with Del Toro's work knows his penchant for all things macabre and monstrous. While the whole film dripped with these dark and disturbing elements, the highlight will have to be that sequence of scenes of Victor carving out various body parts from different dead soldiers, then connecting them together to build his 3-D jigsaw puzzle of a Creature. It would take a strong stomach to sit through this fascinating process of anatomical construction.
3. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER (MY FULL REVIEW)
Anderson was able to mix character study, social commentary, political satire, family drama, crime action all together in in perfect harmony. The comedic elements were more prominent, while the dramatic elements were decidedly more subtle. After giving us so much chaos in the first two hours, Anderson saved the best sequence in the closing minutes, executing what could be one of the best shot, most heart-stopping car chases that I've seen.
4. HAMNET (MY FULL REVIEW)
The pace of the storytelling may be slow (in true Chloe Zhao style), and things do get quite overwrought at one point, which may make some wonder where the critical acclaim was coming from. It did feel like a typical family melodrama about a housewife dealing with three kids, spousal abandonment and an insidious plague. However, the real magic began in the last 15 minutes at the premiere staging of "Hamlet" (Noah Jupe in the title role). It was here that we feel the true heart of this film and finally get what the buzz was all about.
5. TRAIN DREAMS (MY FULL REVIEW)
Joel Edgerton gave a sensitive performance here, as Robert lived up to 80, An Oscar nom is not unlikely. He spoke very little in the film, but his sad weathered face said it all. Director Clint Bentley evoked Terence Mallick here. With his cinematographer Adolfo Veloso, editor Patrick Laramie and narrator Will Patton, he had created a poetic portrait of a man and the difficult life he went through. We are moved.
6. BUGONIA (MY FULL REVIEW)
This was a very uncomfortable watch from beginning to end, as it involved taking advantage of a mentally-challenged individual and acts of violence against a woman, all in the name of apparently delusional conspiracy theories of one very emotionally-disturbed individual. Teddy and Michelle were both unlikable characters as written, and as twistedly portrayed by Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone (who really had her hair shaved off). As both of them played off each other wickedly at full blast, award noms are surely forthcoming.
7. SENTIMENTAL VALUE (MY FULL REVIEW)
Renate Reinsve played a stage actress with a severe stage fright. Her most intense scene here was that opening sequence of her Nora struggling to get into the proper frame of mind to mount the stage was very tense as the clock was ticking past curtain time. Even if her acting style would be subtler that this for the rest of the film, Reinsve is right in the thick of Best Actress race at the Oscars this year for her performance here.
8. THE SECRET AGENT (MY FULL REVIEW)
Writer-director Kleber Mendonça Filho did not tell Armando's story right away from the start. He took his time, even taking time to show us a man's leg found inside a dead shark first, before introducing us all these side characters around him. Mendonça Filho told his serious story with dark humor (a hairy leg attacking gays in the park), as well as unbearable suspense (hired killers and their hired killer tracking Armando). I liked it when the story connected to a present day history researcher Flavia (Laura Lufési), which expanded the scope of the story.
9. MARTY SUPREME (MY FULL REVIEW)
Like "Uncut Gems," the mood of the film was very highly stressful as the unscrupulous central character getting involved in a lot of very tight, precarious situations, on or away from the pingpong table. Because of his annoying sense of self-importance, Marty Mauser was not a particularly likable title character, so Chalamet had to draw a lot from his own personal charisma and goodwill to get the audience on his side through this 150 minute film.
10. F1 (MY FULL REVIEW)
F1 is the latest project released by Plan B, and it does not seem farfetched that it will attract Academy Award attention as well. The story is simple and frankly, quite familiar, so may find yourself predicting what will happen next in the strained relationship between Sonny and Joshua, and likely guess a lot of things right. The star power of Brad Pitt was a big factor to make the dramatic redemption story of Sonny Hayes pop out on the big screen, enhanced by awesome production design by Ben Munro and cool costumes by Julian Day.
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FEARLESS FORECAST:
Which of the nominees do I think WILL win (NOT necessarily who I WANT to win):
Best Picture: SINNERS
Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme,One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Train Dreams
Performance by an actor in a leading role: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Performance by an actress in a leading role: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Performance by an actress in a supporting role: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Best animated feature film: KPop Demon Hunters
Nominees: Arco, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Best animated short film: Retirement Plan
Nominees: Butterfly, Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, The Three Sisters
Achievement in cinematography: One Battle After Another (Michael Bauman)
Nominees: Frankenstein (Dan Laustsen), Marty Supreme (Darius Khondji), Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw), Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso)
Achievement in costume design: Frankenstein (Kate Hawley)
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash (Deborah L. Scott), Hamnet (Malgosia Turzanska), Marty Supreme (Miyako Bellizzi), Sinners (Ruth Carter)
Achievement in directing: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Nominees: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best documentary feature film: The Perfect Neighbor
Nominees: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Best documentary short film: All the Empty Rooms
Nominees: Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: Were and Are Gone, The Devil Is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness
Achievement in film editing: One Battle After Another (Andy Jurgensen)
Nominees: F1 (Stephen Mirrioni), Marty Supreme( Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie), Sentimental Value (Olivier Bugge Coutté), Sinners (Michael P. Shawver)
Best international feature film: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Nominees: The Secret Agent (Brazil), It Was Just an Accident (France), Sirāt (Spain), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Achievement in casting: Sinners (Francine Maisler)
Nominees: Hamnet (Nina Gold), Marty Supreme (Jennifer Venditti), One Battle after Another (Cassandra Kulukundis), The Secret Agent (Gabriel Domingues)
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling: Frankenstein (Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey)
Nominees: Kokuho (Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu), Sinners (Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry), The Smashing Machine (Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein), The Ugly Stepsister (Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg)
Original Score: Sinners (Ludwig Goransson)
Nominees: Bugonia (Jerskin Fendrix), Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat), Hamnet (Max Richter), One Battle after Another (Jonny Greenwood)
Original Song: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters; music and lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
Nominees: "Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless; music and lyric by Diane Warren, "I Lied to You" from Sinners; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson, "Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi!; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike, "Train Dreams" from Train Dreams; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave
Achievement in production design: Frankenstein
Nominees: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Best live action short film: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Nominees: Butcher's Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's Period Drama, The Singers
Achievement in sound: Sinners
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sirāt
Achievement in visual effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Nominees: F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): One Battle after Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Nominees: Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy, Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro, Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell, Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Writing (Original Screenplay): Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
Nominees: Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow), It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian), Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie), Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)


















