Ranking This Year's OSCAR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES (2019) & MY OSCAR BETS

February 24, 2019

With the Oscar Awards coming on March 5, Monday morning Manila time, it is time for me now to make my fearless Oscar predictions.  (My Oscar predictions of previous years were posted on these links: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013).

This year's nominees are a very tight group, each with their own unique forms of cinematic excellence. With ratings between 9 or 8 out of 10, I really would not mind with any one of these films to win the Best Picture Oscar. Here is how I would rank this year's 8 nominees for Oscar Best Picture based on my own opinions when I first saw them, not exactly in the order of probability that I think they will win. 

1. GREEN BOOK
(MY FULL REVIEW)

FIVE NOMINATIONS Picture, actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, film editing

The simplicity and warmth of the story is charming and engaging. The picture it painted about the hypocrisy extant in the segregationist Southern USA during those times was tense and powerful. The two lead actors Mortensen and Ali both gave down-to-earth, sincere and captivating transformative performances of white driver and black employer. The original screenplay by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and director Peter Farrely seems to be Oscar-bound. The lack of a Best Director nod for Farrely though may not bode too well in its Best Picture bid, but definitely this is one of the year's most outstanding films. 9/10.

2. BLACKkKLANSMAN
(MY FULL REVIEW)

SIX NOMINATIONS Picture, director, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, film editing, original score


This was a most audacious yet very entertaining film directed by Spike Lee, who is finally nominated by the Academy for Best Director for the very first time. The story was about Ron Stallworth, an African-American police officer who pretended to be white over the phone to applied for membership to the local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan in Colorado Springs. When they called for a face-to-face meeting, he sent his white colleague Flip Zimmerman to stand in for him. For a final punch, Lee gave us shocking news reel footage which showed anarchy on the streets during the 2017 Unite the Right Rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, to further drive home the message against bigotry. 9/10. 

3. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
(MY FULL REVIEW)

FIVE NOMINATIONS Picture, actor, film editing, sound mixing, sound editing

Technical aspects of cinematography, editing, production design, costumes, and the musical score were all top notch. The hit song choices in the soundtrack were all extraordinary.The treatment of the material was respectful and non-controversial. While this approach may prove too safe or too simplistic for some critics, it made the film more easily accessible and very entertaining for mainstream viewers.  In the final 20 minutes devoted to Queen's bravura set in the 1985 Live Aid concert at Wembley Arena, Rami Malek's performance was almost a perfect copy of Freddie Mercury's. More importantly, the passionate emotional impact of what was considered as the greatest live concert performance of all time was also captured and delivered intact. 9/10.

4. VICE
(MY FULL REVIEW)

EIGHT NOMINATIONS Picture, director, actor, supporting actor and actress, original screenplay, film editing, makeup and hairstyling

Under the direction of Adam McKay (who also did "The Big Short"), "Vice" is like no other political biopic I had seen before. It was a sly unflinching blackly comic film that boldly criticized its subject (and the people around him) in a most underhanded manner. This movie was fascinating to me because it was so bold. All of these people (Dick and Lynne Cheney, George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld) were still very much alive, yet here was a movie that was brazenly making fun of them and what they had done. Amazing wit and guts. 9/10. 

5. BLACK PANTHER
(MY FULL REVIEW)

SEVEN NOMINATIONS Picture, original score, original song, sound editing, sound mixing, costume design, production design

This film was a gloriously rich celebration of African culture, with several tribal influences seen in the costume design (by 2-time Oscar nominee Ruth E. Carter), production design (by Hannah Beachler), musical score (by Ludwig Göransson, with a soundtrack featuring songs by hip-hop star Kendrick Lamarr!) and choreography (by percussionist Jabari Exum). This resplendent cultural color and pride brought about by all these potential award winning technical artists were what made this film stand out above all Marvel Cinematic Universe films, not really its superhero aspects. 8/10. 

6. ROMA
(MY FULL REVIEW)

TEN NOMINATIONS Picture, director, actress, supporting actress, foreign language, original screenplay, production design, cinematography, sound mixing, sound editing

The story was an episodic depiction of daily life and times of an upper middle-class family, and their maids who tirelessly kept up with them. Everything seemed to be so simple and common, yet there was a clear (and strangely engaging) dramatic progression in the way director Alfonso Cuaron told his story. Filmed in glorious black and white, every frame looked like a moving, living postcards. Tracking shot after tracking shot, those wide shots, and close ups -- all cinematically artful. Even as the story itself may underwhelm, the crisp visual spectacle of this film cannot be denied.  8/10. 

7. THE FAVOURITE
(MY FULL REVIEW)

TEN NOMINATIONS Picture, director, actress, supporting actress (two), original screenplay, production design, film editing, costume design, cinematography


The main story of this strange period film about the rabid rivalry between Sarah and Abigail to be the Queen's favourite. This was a no-holds-barred and vicious catfight with all claws out, as presented to us for our entertainment by Greek director Yorgos Lanthinos. The blackness of the comedy reflects in the unusually over-the-top costume designs (an Oscar nom for Sandy Dennis) as well as make-up and hairstyling. In contrast with all the strong female characters, the males were all seemingly made to look very foolish. The sharpness of the biting comedy is certainly something to relish, like fine-quality cheddar cheese. 8/10. 

8. A STAR IS BORN
(MY FULL REVIEW)

EIGHT NOMINATIONS Picture, actor, actress, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, original song, cinematography, sound mixing

The first half of the film was more about Ally and her rise. We see about how Jack met Ally, their first night hanging out together, and the first time they sang on stage together. These parts of the story were so perfectly told onscreen. With the camera of cinematographer Matthew Libatique tightly focused on their faces most of the time, we immediately felt the spark that lit up between them and saw how it developed into a bright ball of fire. This part of the film was so raw and honest with heartfelt chemistry between the two characters, truly amazing film-making by newbie director and star Bradley Cooper. 8/10. 


My bets to win for each of the other categories:

Lead Actor: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”;
Nominees: Christian Bale, “Vice”; Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”;  Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Lead Actress: Glenn Close, “The Wife” (MY FULL REVIEW)
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”;  Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”; Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”; Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”;
Nominees: Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”; Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”; Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”; Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “Vice”;
Nomineees: Marina de Tavira, “Roma”; Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Emma Stone, “The Favourite”; Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Director: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”;
Nominees: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”; Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”; Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”;  Adam McKay, “Vice”

Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman; (MY FULL REVIEW)
Nominees: “Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird; “Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson; “Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda; “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston;

Animated Short: “One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas;
Nominees: “Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine; “Bao,” Domee Shi; “Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall;  “Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

Adapted Screenplay: “BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee;
Nominees: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen;  “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty; “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins; “A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Original Screenplay: “Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly; 
Nominees: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara; “First Reformed,” Paul Schrader; “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón; “Vice,” Adam McKay

Cinematography: “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón; 
Nominees: “Cold War,” Lukasz Zal; “The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan; “Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel; “A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Best Documentary Feature: “Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi;
Nominees: “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross; “Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu; “Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki; “RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Best Documentary Short Subject: “End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman;
Nominees: “Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins;  “Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald; “A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry; “Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

Best Live Action Short Film: “Marguerite,” Marianne Farley;
Nominees: “Detainment,” Vincent Lambe; “Fauve,” Jeremy Comte;  “Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen; “Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Best Foreign Language Film: “Roma” (Mexico); “Shoplifters” (Japan)
Nominees: “Capernaum” (Lebanon); “Cold War” (Poland); “Never Look Away” (Germany); 

Film Editing: “Vice,” Hank Corwin
Nominees: “BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown; “Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman; “Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito; “The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis; 

Sound Editing: “A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl; (MY FULL REVIEW)
Nominees: “Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker; “Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst; “First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan;  “Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Sound Mixing: “Bohemian Rhapsody”;
Nominees: “Black Panther”;  “First Man”; “Roma”; “A Star Is Born”

Production Design: “Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler;
Nominees: “First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas; “The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton; “Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim; “Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

Original Score: “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell; 
Nominees: “BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard; “Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson; “Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat; “Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Original Song: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice; 
Nominees: “All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA; “I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson; “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman; “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Makeup and Hair: “Vice”
Nominees: “Border”; “Mary Queen of Scots”; 

Costume Design: “The Favourite,” Sandy Powell; 
Nominees: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres; “Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter; “Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell; “Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Visual Effects: “Avengers: Infinity War”; (MY FULL REVIEW)
Nominees: “Christopher Robin”; “First Man”; “Ready Player One”; “Solo: A Star Wars Story”