Ranking This Year's OSCAR BEST PICTURE NOMINEES (2023) & MY OSCAR BETS

March 9, 2023

With the Oscar Awards coming on March 12, 2023, Monday morning (Manila time), it is time for me now to make my fearless Oscar predictions.  (My Oscar predictions of previous years were posted on these links: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013).

This year the Oscar Best Picture is a wide open game as there is no clear front-runner like last year. First, "The Fabelmans" and "The Banshees of Inisherin" won the Golden Globes. "All Quiet on the Western Front" won the BAFTA for Best Picture in a major curve ball. Then in the homestretch, "Everything Everywhere All At Once" won the DGA for Best Director and PGA for Best Picture, and made itself the one to beat. (Last year, dark horse "CODA" won the SAG for Best Ensemble" and the PGA nod for Best Picture, and went on to overtake favorite "Power of the Dog" to win the Oscar for Best Picture.) 

Here is how I would rank this year's 10 nominees for Oscar Best Picture based on my own personal opinions when I first saw them (not based on probability that I think they will win):

1. ELVIS (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Baz Luhrman

Nominations (8): Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Film Editing, Sound

This 2 hour- 39 minute biographical film began to follow the life of Elvis Presley as a young white boy who grew up in a poor black neighborhood, which exposed him to sultry blues and rousing gospel music. When he was a young man, he took these musical influences and created his own brand of country music with a touch of the blues. His unique look and electric live performance style took his screaming female fans, and later the whole country, by storm. 

This is the first film this year that is a clear contender during the awards season next year, including the Oscars. Aside from imminent acting nominations for Butler and Hanks, Baz Luhrmann's scintillating direction will likely be cited as well, along with technical nods for cinematography, film editing, costume design, hair and make-up, and most especially sound. Its wall of meticulously-edited sounds needs to be heard in a Dolby theater. 9/10

2. ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Edgar Berger

Nominations (9): Picture, International Feature Film, Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Production Design, Original Score, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound

The destructive violence and senseless tragedy in the battlefields were caught by the beautiful cinematography of James Friend, especially those magnificent long shots of soldiers marching, running and dying across the desolate landscape. The details of the widespread carnage, with the unique injuries of each dead soldier so meticulously recreated with make-up and prosthetics, were realistic and very difficult to look at. Its strong message about the absurdity, pointlessness and stupidity of war was loud and clear. 9/10

3. TOP GUN: MAVERICK (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Joseph Kosinski

Nominations (5): Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, Film Editing, Sound

The best parts of this film are the breathtakingly-fast and exhilarating flying scenes, all said to be done without the benefit of computer-generated effects. We see Maverick flying an experimental Mach 10 jet, an F-18 Super Hornet and even a F-14 Tomcat (for a nice throwback to the first film). The superb cinematography and editing made it all look like Cruise was actually flying those planes. 9/10

4. TáR (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Todd Field

Nominations (5): Picture, Actress, Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing

Blanchett's Tár felt so much like a real person, the audience will despise her overbearing attitude and power-tripping ways of dealing with people who are closest to her, those with whom she shared her confidences. Despite, as Tár's personal life and career careened into a downward spiral, Blanchett still held us all in the palm of her hand through every dark and uncomfortable moment of personal hell she went through. 8/10

5. AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: James Cameron

Nominations (4): Picture, Visual Effects, Production Design, Sound

The biggest innovation in this film was the technology for motion capture for underwater scenes, something that has never been done before. Cameron really went all the way in creating a CGI marine biosphere for these Na'vi creatures to interact with water creatures big and small, sacred and mystical. Seeing the callous ways humans invade and destroy such natural beauty and balance sent out a potent pro-environment message. 8/10

6. EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE (MY FULL REVIEW) 

Directed by: The Daniels

Nominations (10): Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (2), Director, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Costume Design, Film Editing

Like they did in "Swiss Army Man" before, Daniels again attempts to take on the meaning of life in their own silly absurdist way. We face several forks everyday in our path of life, and the choices we make decide how our life would turn out. This existentialist concept of the Multiverse, chaotic as it may seem in this film, posits that there exist different versions of you living another version of life. The life you are living now may not be your best life at all. 8/10

7. THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Martin O'Donagh

Nominations (9): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor (2), Original Score, Film Editing

The charm of rural life in a bleak but picturesque Irish village in 1920s was fully captured here. Padraig's donkey and Colm's dog played important roles as their quirky pub denizens or the town gossip. Kerry Condon was very good as Padraig's sister and sounding board, until she felt she needed room to breathe herself. Sheila Flitton was mystical as the old woman who saw the future, perhaps a personification of the legendary creatures of the title. 8/10

8. THE FABELMANS (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Steven Spielberg

Nominations (7): Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Production Design

The best scenes were those of young Sammy creating and screening his masterpieces -- the train robbery, the camping trip, the "Ditch Day" film. We see his passionate directorial process, painstaking camera and film editing work, motivating the acting of his sisters and friends, innovating his own special effects. While the family turmoil and anti-Semitism scenes added uncomfortable melodrama, Spielberg's skill in handling sentimentality remains assured. 8/10

9. TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by: Ruben Ostlund

Nominations (3): Picture, Director, Original Screenplay

Of course, there is Dolly de Leon. As Abigail, the toilet manager of the yacht, we do not see her in most of the film, but in Part 3, de Leon is front and center. With a dominating screen presence despite her petite physical stature, there is no way she could be ignored. Her transformation from a lowly housekeeper on the yacht to a no-nonsense big shot among billionaires was loaded with brutally honest social commentary. 8/10

10. WOMEN TALKING (MY FULL REVIEW)

Directed by Sarah Polley

Nominations (2): Picture, Adapted Screenplay

The color palette was washed-out. The main set was confined to a barn loft. The topic was how women should respond to toxic masculinity. With these elements, writer-director Sarah Polley was able to craft a very thought-provoking film that felt like an intimate and riveting theater piece. Her pacing was just right and the script was eloquent. You'd want to rewind or pause some scenes to better hear and reflect on Polley's pithy and sobering lines. 7/10

***** My bets to win for each of each categories:

Best Picture: "Everything Everywhere All At Once" Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “The Fabelmans,”“Tár,”“Top Gun: Maverick," “Triangle of Sadness,” “Women Talking”

Best Director: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Nominees: Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”), Todd Field (“Tár”), Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Lead Actor: Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) (MY FULL REVIEW)

Nominees: Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”), Bill Nighy (“Living”) 

Best Lead Actress: Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”), Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”), Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”), Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 

Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Nominees: Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), , Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Adapted Screenplay: "Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson, “Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro, “Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks

Best Original Screenplay: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh

Nominees: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, “The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner, “Tár,” Written by Todd Field, “Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund

Best Cinematography: “Elvis,” Mandy Walker

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front”, James Friend, “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” Darius Khondji, “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins, “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister

Best Documentary Feature Film: “Navalny,” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Nominees: “All That Breathes,” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer, “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov, “Fire of Love,” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman, “A House Made of Splinters,” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström

Best Documentary Short Film: “Stranger at the Gate,” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Nominees: “The Elephant Whisperers,” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga, “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt, “The Martha Mitchell Effect,” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levine, "Haulout" 

Best Film Editing: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Paul Rogers

Nominees: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, “Elvis,” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, “Tár,” Monika Willi, “Top Gun: Maverick,” Eddie Hamilton

Best International Feature Film: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) 

Nominees: “Argentina, 1985” (Argentina), “Close” (Belgium), “EO” (Poland), “The Quiet Girl” (Ireland) 

Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose  (MY FULL REVIEW)

Nominees: “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren, “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop, “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler, “This Is a Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne 

Best Production Design: “Elvis,” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper, “Babylon,” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino, ; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn, “The Fabelmans,” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara,  “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole

Best Visual Effects: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar, “The Batman,” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick, “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Best Animated Feature Film: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley (MY FULL REVIEW)

Nominees: “Marcel the Shell With Shoes On,” Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey, “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” Joel Crawford and Mark Swift, “The Sea Beast,” Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger, “Turning Red,” Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Best Animated Short Film: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse,” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud

Nominees: “The Flying Sailor,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby, “Ice Merchants,” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano, “My Year of Dicks,” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon, “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It,” Lachlan Pendragon

Best Costume Design: Catherine Martin, “Elvis”

Nominees: “Babylon,” Mary Zophres, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ruth Carter, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata, “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Jenny Beavan

Best Live Action Short: "An Irish Goodbye,” Tom Berkeley and Ross White

Nominees: “Ivalu,” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan, “Night Ride,” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen, “The Red Suitcase,” Cyrus Neshvad,  “Le Pupille,” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová, “The Batman,” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow, “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti

Best Original Score: “The Fabelmans,” John Williams

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Volker Bertelmann, “Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Son Lux

Best Sound: “Top Gun: Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Nominees: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges, “The Batman,” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, “Elvis,” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller