March 3, 2024
With the Oscar Awards coming on March 11, 2024, Monday morning (Manila time) live streaming on the Disney+ app, it is time for me now to make my fearless Oscar predictions.
(My Oscar predictions of previous years were posted on these links: 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013).
Here is how I would rank this year's 10 nominees for Oscar Best Picture based on my own personal opinions when I first saw them (not based on probability that I think they will win):
Director: Christopher Nolan
Nominations (13): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Original Score, Sound, Makeup & Hairstyling
Being a Christopher Nolan work, this was far from a typical biopic. So like other Nolan films, the audience needs to pay close attention because every little detail -- words, images, color, sounds -- mattered. It had multiple characters (scientists, communists, military men, lawyers, and politicians) in events which were not told in chronological order. For those who do not know the history, there was even a twist that Nolan springs on the 11th hour. 10/10
Director: Celine Song
Nominations (2): Picture, Original Screenplay
There was that chemistry between lead actors Greta Lee and Teo Yoo which made you want to root for Na Young and Hae Sung's friendship to go up the next level. However, John Magaro played the unenviable role of the man who, through no fault of his own, stood in their way. Because of the elegantly understated mood Song built up, these actors only had their facial expressions and vocal inflections to reflect the nuances of their characters. 9/10
Director: Yorgos Lanthimos
Nominations (11): Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Original Score, Makeup & Hairstyling
Because of its out-of-this-world topic and out-of-the-box execution, this film looked and felt too weird, likely not to fit everyone's taste or sense of humor. However, there would be no arguments for the merits of its technical aspects -- lively shifting cinematography by Robbie Ryan, 19th century steam-punk production design by Shona Heath and the Victorian haute couture by costume designer Holly Waddington. 8/10
Director: Justine Triet
Nominations (5): Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing
Justine Triet made sure that audiences would make feel Sandra's vexation (or anger) towards her husband at that point in time. The very loud playing of Bacao Rhythm and Steel Bars' cover of 50 Cent's "P.I.M.P." was purposefully done to get on one's nerves. This raucous music also put the accuracy of Daniel's testimony in question, as, however sharp his hearing was, he may well have not accurately heard what his parents were talking about before he left. 8/10
Director: Martin Scorsese
Nominations (10): Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Original Score, Original Song
Now at age 80, Martin Scorsese can really tell a complex multilayered story about true-to-life racial abuse. He led a formidable artistic team to achieve his epic vision --cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto, editor Thelma Schoonmaker, musician Robbie Robertson -- all of whom are sure shots for Oscar nominations. It took 3-1/2 hours to tell because he wanted to immerse us in the rich Osage culture before laying out the reprehensible crimes committed against them. 8/10
Director: Alexander Payne
Nominations (5): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing
It is hard to believe that Paul Giamatti had only earned one Oscar nomination before, and no it was not for "Sideways," but a supporting nod for "Cinderella Man" (2006). His nomination (and possible win) now for "The Holdovers" is well deserved because only Giamatti could have played this wall-eyed, cantankerous grouch Paul Hunham, and make him actually lovable despite his obvious character flaws. 8/10
Director: Jonathan Glazer
Nominations (5): Picture, Director, International Film, Adapted Screenplay, Sound
This film had practically no plot. All we saw were mundane scenes of daily family life, all going on unmindful of the atrocities outside. Glazer only wanted us to see and feel the life of a Nazi officer and butcher at home. He was just like any other father who ate dinner with his family and told his kids bedtime stories. But then, we knew this was not a normal family. We knew where that mink coat and those gold teeth came from. The irony was not lost on us. 8/10
Director: Bradley Cooper
Nominations (7): Picture, Actor, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling
Bradley Cooper was not only lead star, but also director, producer (together with Martin Scorsese and Steven Spielberg), and co-writer (with Josh Singer, Oscar-winning writer of "Spotlight"). In only his second feature film after "A Star is Born" (2019), Cooper displayed remarkable artistic growth in his directorial style. With cinematographer Matthew Libatique and editor Michelle Tesoro (Fil-Ams both!), his scene transitions were seamlessly poetic. 8/10
Director: Greta Gerwig
Nominations (8): Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song (2), Costume Design, Production Design
The screenplay by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach told a story which was likely furthest from the shallow childish plot most viewers were expecting. At the beginning, everything was all fun and games, but when Barbie suddenly became self-aware at that party, the story was just beginning to get much deeper than what the trailer would make you believe. The message of sexual politics was serious, but director Gerwig maintained the delightful absurdity and over-the-top foolishness both in Barbieland and the Real World. 7/10
Director: Cord Jefferson
Nominations (5): Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score
Director Cord Jefferson's script was the clear star of this film, so sharp and so witty. He had adapted the 2001 novel entitled "Erasure" by Percival Ellis. This was an experimental work where Ellis embeds the whole offensive text of Monk's fictional book "My Pafology" (later retitled as "F**k") within his own novel. Jefferson followed the same distinctive style to fascinating effect as the film arrived at its conclusion in a number of alternative ways. 7/10
***** My bets to win for each of each categories:
BEST PICTURE: OPPENHEIMER
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
BEST DIRECTOR: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Nominees: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM: The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
Nominees: The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Io Capitano (Italy), Perfect Days (Japan), Society of the Snow (Spain)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Past Lives
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: American Fiction
Nominees: Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Killers of the Flower Moon
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST FILM EDITING: Oppenheimer
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Oppenheimer
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Godzilla Minus One
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon
BEST SOUND: The Zone of Interest
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Poor Things
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Barbie
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Maestro
Nominees: Golda, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM: 20 Days in Mariupol
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM: Red, White and Blue
Nominees: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Last Repair Shop
Nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island In Between, Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
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