March 2, 2025
With the Oscar Awards coming on March 11, 2024, Monday morning (Manila time) live streaming on the Disney+ app, it is time for me now to make my fearless Oscar predictions.
(My Oscar predictions of previous years were posted on these links: 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013).
Here is how I would rank this year's 10 nominees for Oscar Best Picture based on my own personal opinions when I first saw them (not based on probability that I think they will win):
The technical merits of this sequel maintains the high standards of cinematography (Greig Fraser), film editing (Joe Walker) and musical score (Hans Zimmer) set in the first film. The scenes featuring the sandworms were excellently executed, from the exhilarating first time Paul rode the giant grandfather worm Shai Hulud, or that scene where the Maker Keeper (Alison Halstead) demonstrates how to extract the Water of Life from a teenage worm. 9/10
Coming from "Dune 2" and "Wonka," Chalamet displayed more range as an actor here as Bob Dylan. Aside from nailing the dramatic moments, it was doubly amazing how he got Bob's spoken voice, distinctive speak-sing style, even his guitar playing. His versions of classics "The Times They Are a-Changing" and "Like a Rolling Stone" (where the title phrase came from) were impeccable. He actually has a good chance of winning the Best Actor Oscar. 9/10
Director Jon M. Chu grasped the ambitious scale of this production by the horns and succeeding, despite some issues with pace. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande knocked their roles out of the park, in both singing and acting-wise. Nods in production design, costume design, hair and makeup, visual effects and sound are in the bag -- as exemplified in complex numbers like "Dancing Through Life," "Popular" and, of course, "Defying Gravity." 9/10
Director Edward Berger ("All Quiet on the Western Front") had a sure handle on telling this complex story based on Robert Harris' 2016 novel, as secrets sprout out on after the other, affecting the votes at every thrilling turn, although that final twist was a bit too bizarre. Berger and cinematographer Stephane Fontaine also took time capturing silent beautiful images of random cardinals, nuns and locations from various angles, enhancing artistic cachet. 8/10.
Demi Moore gave a brave fearless portrayal of fading star Elisabeth, in a role so wild and out of her comfort zone. Elisabeth was a physically-tough and emotionally-taxing character which can earn Moore an Oscar nomination for Best Actress (and even win, like Elisabeth did). Fargeat really went all out crazy for this, in the process also paying tribute to horror classics, like "Freaks," "The Shining," and "Carrie." 8/10
Fernanda Torres's performance as Eunice Paiva is deservedly the centerpiece of this film. Her Eunice was a pillar of restraint and dignity in the face of the disappearance of her husband. Torres made us feel Eunice's stress and anxieties as she made tough financial decisions, without resorting to cliched melodrama. For a 2014 scene, Eunice was played by Torres's real-life mother Fernanda Montenegro (who also received an Oscar nomination for her work in "Central Station"). 8/10
Anora is a difficult role for Mikey Morrison in the physical sense (both comedy and skin exposure), especially in Act 1 and 2. However, that quiet ending was her stellar highlight despite being downbeat and static in the confines of a car. The Zacharovs were basically one-dimensional caricatures, but, the goons, especially those played by Karaguilan and Borisov, did make a very strong and memorable impressions the way their characters turned out. 7/10
The title word "Brutalist" refers to the architectural style that Toth espoused. This style was no-frills and non-nostalgic, with simple straight lines, angular shapes, minimalist constructions, unpainted or monochrome colors. This likely also referred to the brutality Toth had experienced during World War 2 and in America, worse at the hands of people whom he thought were his friends and benefactors. The Vista Vision cinematography, musical score, and production design of this film also reflected this imposing and heavy spirit. 7/10
The story of racial inequality during the 1960s is certainly not a new one. However, the way director and co-writer Ross distinguished his films from other films about the civil rights movement was the unique way he told this story cinematically with alternate shifting first-person points of view -- at first from Elwood, then later Turner, then third person, and so forth. It was remarkable how we only see Elwood's face about 35 minutes into the film! 7/10
While the decision of a male crime boss to transform into a trans-female philanthropist makes an interesting story, it seemed too simplistic in its portrayal of the complex process. Audiard's decision to make this story a musical was very bizarre. The breathy singing was not very good, the songs and tunes were not particularly memorable. Anyhow, Zoe Saldana was solid as lawyer Rita, who also sang the most critical song "El Mal" about political corruption. 6/10
FEARLESS FORECAST:
Which of the nominees do I think WILL win (NOT who I WANT to win):
Best Picture: Anora
Other Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave*, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
Best Director: Sean Baker (Anora)
Other Nominees: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Other Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Best Actress: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Other Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Mikey Madison (Anora)
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Other Nominees: Yura Borisov, Anora, Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce, The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Other Nominees: Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Writing (Original Screenplay): A Real Pain
Other Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, September 5,The Substance
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Conclave
Other Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
Animated Feature Film: The Wild Robot
Other Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Production Design: Wicked
Other Nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Costume Design: Wicked
Other Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu
Cinematography: The Brutalist
Other Nominees: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu
Film Editing: Conclave
Other Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Substance
Other Nominees: A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, Wicked
Sound: Dune: Part Two
Other Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
Other Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, , Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
Music (Original Song): “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Other Nominees: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Like A Bird” from Sing Sing*
Music (Original Score): The Brutalist
Other Nominees: Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Documentary Feature Film: No Other Land
Other Nominees: Black Box Diaries, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane
International Feature Film: I’m Still Here (Brazil)
Other Nominees: The Girl With the Needle (Denmark), Emilia Pérez (France), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany), Flow (Latvia)
Animated Short Film: Magic Candies
Other Nominees: Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of the Cypress, Wander to Wonder, Yuck!
Documentary Short Film: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Other Nominees: Death by Numbers, I Am Ready, Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart
Live Action Short Film: A Lien
Other Nominees: Anuja, I’m Not a Robot, The Last Ranger,The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
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